Drawing on the opinion polls published in the week since Kwarsi Kwarteng’s mini budget, politics.co.uk’s latest Westminster model provides a graphic illustration of how the Conservatives would be decimated in any election held today.
Half of the current cabinet would lose their seats at Westminster as Labour would gain the Isle of Wight.
In the first three weeks of the Truss premiership, the Labour lead over the Conservatives was trending at 11.2%. In doing so, Britain’s electoral map already looked set to be redrawn.
Labour was on course to win seats in parts of the country where it has always been a distant spectator, such as both Bournemouth constituencies in Dorset, Macclesfield in Cheshire, and Bromley and Chiselhurst in south east London.
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In the light of last week’s mini budget, the situation now appears even more dramatic for the Conservatives.
On the current polling, Labour would gain Huntingdon, once the safest Conservative seat in England and formerly represented at Westminster by the then prime minister, John Major.
Based on the 2019 election boundaries, Labour would also gain the Isle of Wight. With the island set to be divided into two constituencies next time round, this even has the potential to create two gains for the party. This part of the English Channel has never previously been represented by Labour at Westminster.
In total, an unprecedented 11 cabinet ministers would lose their seats in the House of Commons.
These include defence secretary Ben Wallace (Wyre and Preston North); business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg (North East Somerset); levelling up secretary Simon Clarke (Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland); COP26 president Alok Sharma (Reading West); work and pensions secretary Chloe Smith (Norwich North); welsh secretary Sir Robert Buckland (Swindon South); chief secretary to the treasury Chris Philp (Croydon South)l attorney general Michael Ellis (Northampton North), and conservative party chairman Jake Berry (Rossendale and Darwen). All would be defeated by labour.
The Scottish secretary Alistair Jack would lose his seat (Dumfries and Galloway) to the SNP, and the culture secretary, Michelle Donelan would lose her seat to the Lib Dems.
On the basis of current polling, chancellor Kwarsi Kwarteng (Spelthorne), former leadership challenger Penny Mordaunt (Portsmouth North), and deputy prime minister, Therese Coffey (Suffolk Coastal), would all retain their seats albeit with wafer thin majorities.
According to the latest politics.co.uk model, a general election held on the basis of the current opinion polls would lead to a Labour majority at Westminster of 54 seats:
The current polling showcases the staggering transition in British politics that has occurred over the course of the last 12 months. At the same point in 2021, Boris Johnson enjoyed a trend opinion poll lead of 3% over Labour.
Although a general election is not likely to be held till May 2024, the current reversal in fortunes provides a difficult backdrop for the new Truss government as they travel to Birmingham for the party’s annual conference next week.