By Russell Bruce
The recent Savanta poll carried out between 3rd and 8th May indicated a substantial rise in support for Labour in Scotland and found they had a 4% lead over the SNP for the coming general election. That was the big story and indicated the challenge facing John Swinney in the week of change in the SNP leadership. The data on Labour’s strengthened position has been well covered. Savanta are very slow to release their tables which enables them to control the narative. The change in relative fortunes was a big story but now that I have got hold of the tables there is much more worth covering.
The sheer scale of the number of tables Savanta publish provides a great deal of useful information which takes a bit of ploughing through. Savanta published 181 tables covering a vast range of questions providing data on a range of political positions and insome cases individuals. Working though these I got to an interesting group of tables looking at how Alba are viewed. Given this is a party whose support is around 1.7% these questions gave an interesting slant on how Alba is viewed. The table produced from the Savanta data – columns 1, 2 and 4 is augmented by the score we have added – column 3. (Do apply, YES less Does not apply, No)
Alba comes out well in two areas and is considered to have strong leadership in the main. Alba’s best score is on the ‘Is divided’ question where it gets a +20% score. When it comes to understanding issues facing ordinary people, vulnerable people or having good politices and keeping promises Alba are in ever deeper negative ratings.
Column 4 is the Don’t Know score which averages 38%. The average Do apply, YES score is 21% and the average Does not apply, No score is 41%. The average overall Alba score, column 3, is minus 15%.
It is sometimes what is buried in poll tables that are not highlighted that can indicate areas of interest. Alba might take some heart from that 21% Yes score but the scale of negative scores on significant issue characteristics seems likely to confirm a continuation low poll ratings well below other minor parties like the Greens and Reform.
This is a developing story with additional analysis to follow
