By Russell Bruce
A lot can happen in three months – like a government elected by a huge majority now as unpopular as the Tories. Starmer’s assumption is they can turn this around but the omens are not good. Once a good/fair reputation is lost, regaining it is a long and painful process. That puts Labour in the same difficult position as the Tories. The enthusiasm for Labour to be elected was less than the result implied They won overwhelmingly on a narrow vote bercause the voters proiority was to get rid of the Tories.
It is easy for Labour to conclude that Tory unpopularity will continue. It is also clear that Reform remain a force to be reckoned with. A populist beer swilling ex-stockbroker still has the ability to connect with both the anti-EU far right and a male domininated less educated electorate. That is similar to the divisions dominating the support for the two candidates for the US presidency. There is a difference though. Trump is inconherent and rambling even though that does not seem to matter to his core voters. Nobody would say that about Farage who is articulate and exudes a charm that appeals to a potentially larger audience with Labour joining the Tories in the political pit.
This suggests the potential for politics in England to became even more fragmented going forward. This opens the potential opportunity for the political recover of the independence movement and the SNP in Scotland. Support for independence remains strong but remains much around the result of 2014. There is no question that the month to month moves in support for independence needs to move sharply upward to 60% and above to deliver a sustainable mandate for a new independence referendum.
A fragmented political situation in England could help Scotland get its act together but we stress there are no guarantees. The changed dynamic of politcal support in England will also to some extent rub off in Scotland. The forces driving independence at a community as well as the political level need to gel quickly to make sure the devolved government that is elected in May 2026 is able and determined to deliver independence. As things stand there is much work needed to achieve that.
Whatever the dificulties of a political breakdown are in England the establishment will remain determined to prevent Scotland leaving the Union. They have a long history of discouraging countries to leave the arms of the British state. They are good at it even when things are problematic so Scotland needs to be focussed and clear about the higher level objective over minor differences in what independence means and how it is achieved.
A lot can happen in the next 3 months
Already the nom dom tax take that was a core part of Labour’s manifesto is pulp. The £1.4 billion expected saving on scrapping the Winter Fuel Allowance is toast. Increases in applications for Pension Credit which trigger futher social payouts are now expected to cut any saving by at least 50% to £700 million. We have a Chancellor of the Exchequer that has got her sums wrong. By rights she should be gone but I do not expect Starmer to fire her. He is thought to have a loyalty that was beyond the ill fated Truss in her attempt to save her doomed permiership.
The Budget is just a month away on 30th October. Expectations are it will be tough with the less well off taking a big chunk of the pain and no change to the means testing of the Winter Fuel Allowance or any likelihoood of dealing with George Osborne’s austerity measures and introduction of the two-child benefit cap.
The three months following the budget will take us to the end of January with stiil February which can be a very cold month to follow. By the end of winter the full extent of the means testing of the Winter Fuel Allowance will be clear. Even a fairly mild winter suggests unacceptable deaths as more people have to chose between heating and eating and the further north the greater the difference in temperature between Scotland and London.
Westminster left the decision on the Winter Fuel Allowance to the Scottish Government as it had been devolved but the funding to maintain it in Scotland was not forthcoming. Over the years the SNP have introduced a range of policies that have benefited the people of Scotland from the mitigation of the Bedroom Tax, introduction of the Baby Box, Free University Education and the introduction of the Scottish Child Payment which has recently been extended. All this is at risk if Labour win in Scotland in 2026. Former Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale has been clear Free University Education which Labour recently proposed for England and have since abandoned will not survive a change of government at Holyrood and much else besides.
Only with Independence can Scotland deliver progressive policies that are fair to all as well as promoting economic growth with the development of the new industries of the future which has been the policy the SNP set out for our economic agencies – Scottish Enterprise, HIE, South of Scotland Enterprise and Scotttish Development International.
The potential for a political, economic and social consensus to begin to dominate Scottish politics in the months ahead offers great opportunity to drive the movement for independence to a positive conclusion but a great deal needs to happen to shape that in order to motivate a clear majority of the Scottish population. That means a political consensus that both transcends political parties and welds them into a coherent framework. That is extremely difficult but essential or independence vanishes into an unknown future.
The political situation in England is developing a fragmentation that will not change over the next few years and indeed is likely to become more fragmented and incoherent. It is a situation that may never come again but offers Scotland an opportunity we have not considered so far but I submit seems to be emerging as Labour follows the Tories into a shared austerity and political distance from the EU and Single Market.
As is said a week is a long time in politics. It is the week we found that Reeves figures do not add up. There will be much budget playing around at the end of the month and a new pile of PFI debt that costs and costs for years ahead. Labour are not that good at managing the national accounts and Reeves is more concerned to keep the higher earners on board – £150,000 a year – than to help make things easier for those on low earnings.
