The cost of living has been identified as the top priority for the government to address in the autumn budget.
A new poll of over 7,400 people has found that 59% of voters are demanding action on the cost of living and the economy. This figure was higher than the number of voters who ranked immigration as a top priority (51%) and the NHS (45%).
The MRP poll, conducted by Electoral Calculus on behalf of communications firm PLMR, also showed Reform UK as on track to secure 36% of the vote – placing them ahead of Labour at 21% and the Conservatives at just 15%.
This voting pattern would see Nigel Farage’s party win 445 seats and a majority in the House of Commons. The Conservatives would fall to a historic low of just seven seats, placing them in fifth behind Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party (SNP).
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The research also highlighted tactical voting trends that “could stop Farage in his tracks”. PLMR and Electoral Calculus estimate that 78 seats could flip if voters opposed to Reform UK coordinate their votes to block the party.
According to the poll, over a third of Labour voters said “they would back the Tories to block Reform.” It also found that Green and Your Party voters would “shift to vote Labour to avoid splitting the progressive vote.”
Kevin Craig, founder and CEO of PLMR, described the poll as showing a “remarkable fall from grace for the Conservative Party”.
“The electorate is demanding action on the economy first and foremost”, Craig said. “It’s time to forget the slogans and the clever language. Instead, the government must keep calm and focus on delivering more money into working people’s pockets”.
Craig added: “When we went out onto the streets talking to voters in Liverpool around the Labour Party conference, the message was really clear: voters want the weekly shop to cost less.
“And what our polling also shows is that it’s time to forget the slogans and the clever language. It’s really simple: people want to cost less.”
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said the poll “underscores just how volatile the political landscape has become.”
He identified “two big changes” pointing in different directions. “Anti-Reform tactical voting means Reform’s poll lead isn’t as good as it looks”, Baxter said, “as the party could lose dozens of seats because many voters will vote for any candidate without a light-blue rosette.”
He added: “However, the emergence of ‘Your Party’ further fragments the left-of-centre vote, and makes things easier for Reform UK and harder for Labour.
“Ahead of the Autumn budget coming in November, voters are making their priorities clear, placing the economy, immigration and the NHS at the top of the agenda.
“Labour now faces a fight for votes, and their ability to act decisively and deliver on these priorities will determine whether the party can defend its leadership or risk falling further behind as Reform seeks to solidify its gains.”
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